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It Was Always an IPO

Anthropic filed a confidential S-1 on June 1 at a $965B valuation, eclipsing OpenAI. Read backwards from the filing, the last two years stop looking like a safety lab's awkward compromises and start looking like a pre-IPO playbook executed on schedule.

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Cheap Is a Hardware Strategy

Google led I/O 2026 with a cheap, fast Gemini Flash instead of a frontier behemoth, and everyone read it as conceding the top of the market. Wrong read. Cheap isn't a model strategy, it's a silicon strategy. Google owns every layer from the TPU to the search box, which is why it can give intelligence away while its rivals rent the compute to compete with it, some of them for $40 billion.

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The Last Slow Thing

Everything in software got a fast mode this year except understanding what to build. The proof is in the labs' own org charts: the companies selling the models that supposedly end software engineering are paying $600k for engineers to go sit in customers' offices. The bottleneck moved all the way up to the conversation.

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